Key model predicts 400,000 coronavirus deaths in US by January

A key forecasting model often cited by experts and used by the White House has revised its prediction of COVID-19 deaths in the U.S., now estimating a peak of 410,451 by Jan. 1.

The model created by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington posted an update Friday predicting an additional 224,000 Americans will die by the beginning of next year.

The model says that as many as 122,000 of those deaths could be avoided with safety measures, including near-universal mask use, but it warns that easing restrictions could cause the death toll to be more than 620,000.

“We all must learn from those leaders of nations where the virus has been contained, or where second waves of infections have occurred, and where swift action has been taken to prevent loss of life,” IHME Director Christopher Murray said in a statement.

More at the link above, including the fear of government rushing toward trying for herd immunity just to get their economies going.   Hugs

7 thoughts on “Key model predicts 400,000 coronavirus deaths in US by January

  1. Nan September 6, 2020 / 12:29

    Sometimes I wonder why these writers even bother citing statistics …

    The individuals that think it’s all overblown aren’t going to acquiesce their position … and the rest of us are already doing what we can to limit the spread.

    For such division to take place in relationship to a life or death matter is difficult to understand. Yet it plays out all the time — not only related to the virus, but in innumerable other ways as well.

    Liked by 1 person

    • Scottie September 6, 2020 / 17:31

      Hello Nan. I am not sure I understand what you are trying to say. They cite the statistics so the rest of us have something to use against the deniers, to provide the rest of us with the facts. Too many have found it worth their world view to deny what is clearly known, and yet for the rest of us to argue back to them we must have the facts to be able to show them. Hugs

      Or maybe I misunderstood your comment. If so I am sorry. Hugs


      • Nan September 6, 2020 / 17:54

        My point is … it does NO GOOD to “cite the statistics.” The deniers are going to do what they want to do, statistics be damned.

        Liked by 1 person

        • Scottie September 7, 2020 / 14:35

          Hello Nan. Ah I understand your point now. I like the statistics, I get information from the data. Normally it is a few quotes of percentages or a couple well done charts. So maybe the statistics are for people like me, not the cult supporters, who wont listen to reason anyway. But I still use them, and couch them in a way that reasonable people simply wont be able to ignore them unless they totally deny reason, logical thought, or reality. Thanks. Hugs


          • Nan September 7, 2020 / 14:43

            … unless they totally deny reason, logical thought, or reality.

            I rest my case.

            Liked by 1 person

            • Scottie September 7, 2020 / 16:27

              Hello Nan. Is there no way to reach them? I admit you have far better following of them / personal experience with talking with tRump supporters. I am not sure why they do not engage with me, I would think I am a good target for them. I have checked out Dylan’s blog a few times and he has gone full hard cult tRump / Ben Shapiro / Charlie Kirk, and wont even allow my comments. Oh well, this is what we are going to have to deal with if we ever want to move the country forward progressively. I mean he is a 16 / 17 year old home schooled proud ultra religious hyper conservative willing to do what ever it takes to advance his world view. That scares me and to know that people like Sec. Of Education Betsy Devos , a billionaire, supports and promotes kids and schooling of kids like this. Our country is screwed. Hugs

              Liked by 1 person

              • Nan September 7, 2020 / 17:25

                There may be SOME that are open to reason, but I tend to think it’s the hardcores that are on the internet — and their sole purpose is to spout their prejudices and bigotry. So, in answer to your question, I would say no … there’s little to no way of reaching them. Yes, you may occasionally get a Dylan or someone like him, but I think most of them prefer hitting and running — which is why I think tweeting is so popular. Just look at Trump.

                Nevertheless, even though your posts are pretty much “preaching to the choir,” I do think you provide some good information and possibly
                some “ammunition” for those who enjoy fighting with the enemy. 😉

                Liked by 1 person

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